On Tuesday, gold prices fell on Tuesday with the increasing expectations of the dollar with increasing expectations for more aggressive interest rate hikes to restrain the US Central Bank’s Central Bank of Russia.
Ilya Spivak: If we see positive real interests, gold is invisible
“The more liquid, the less volatility is. The more the markets escape from risk, then the dollar becomes a natural shelter, Dailyfx Foreign Currency Strategist Ilya Spivak said:
Now, in the real sense, these interest rates are still negative when we download the beginning. I think gold does not fall anymore. However, if this type of re -pricing continues for a more hawk Fed and seeing positive real proportions, I think gold will not look quite attractive.
“Note continues to be supported as a portfolio protection”
Kriptokoin.comAs we have reported, the US’s two -year treasury rates have climbed to its highest level since the beginning of 2019 and 10 -year interest rates rose on Monday. Higher interest rates increase the cost of opportunities for keeping the ingredients without returns. SPI Asset Management Manager Stephen Innes says:
In these uncertain times, gold continues to be supported as a critical portfolio protection that will shine at the most challenging intersection where inflationist pressures remain strong but growth slows down.
“Sahin Fed weighs more upward momentum of gold”
According to TD Securities ‘strategists, “Gold protects its power after another powerful employment report, according to TD Securities’ strategists, the possibility of war crimes and more sanctions was arranged to keep safe harbor flows in particular. Strategists explain the issue as follows:
In addition to geopolitical exacerbations, the focus of the precious metal market this week will shift to the FOMC minutes and the tips surrounding the second flow we expect to be announced in May FOMC. In this sense, the safe port appetite and large ETF inputs provide a strong balance, while the drifting of a hawk Fed floor is increasingly weight on the upward momentum of the yellow metal.
According to strategists, the port flows are likely to support yellow metal, unless there is progress in the cease -fire negotiations. Strategists explain their views as follows:
Geopolitical tensions and return curve signals re -fires the interest of the investor, while hawk on a fed floor and negotiators continue to work for the ceasefire, the downward risks are more common.
Anz Gold Appraisal Model shows that it is a high risk premium
Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (Anz), although the demand for gold while the war in Ukraine is expected to remain strong, says that the price is currently a ‘heavy risk premium’. Anz Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Hynes, geopolitical uncertainty dominates the market, while precious metal will still continue to see high demand, he says.
The strategist attributes the reason why gold is seen as the ‘final currency’ to its protection of value during the war, unlike the currencies that remain vulnerable to the consequences of the war and the changes in monetary policies. “However, investors should be aware that the risk premium below has already reached $ 300, Dan said Daniel Hynes, expresses:
The ongoing war in Ukraine will see the request for a safe if the existence remains strong. Since Russia’s occupation of Ukraine, our gold valuation model has jumped from scratch to $ 300, which has a high risk premium.
Anz estimates that the gold price will remain over $ 1,900
Nevertheless, although there is a chance to return to a level closer to the real value of gold, the Russian-Ukraine conflict has secondary effects that provide a price pillow for precious metal. Anz sees $ 1,900 as a solid support level. Daniel Hynes makes the following statement:
Macro and financial crises may have a long -term effect on gold prices. The wider insulation of Russia will see a structural change that will be inflationary in the energy sector. In addition, a weaker economic growth risk is higher. This can create a positive ground for the investor’s request. Therefore, we estimate that the Gold price will remain above $ 1,900 despite the expectations of the Fed’s aggressive interest rate hike cycle.
According to the strategy, the three factors make it an ideal environment for gold: rising inflation, falling interest rates and a weak US dollar. “Rarely all these factors act in one direction and make it difficult to evaluate the true value of gold, Dan said Daniel Hynes, adding:
The increase in value in the US dollar and the sales in the bond market caused the fair value of gold to fall sharply in January this year. However, with the gathering of Russian troops near the Ukrainian border, safe port purchases supported gold prices with increasing geopolitical tension.
Pablo Piovano: Gold continues to be limited in $ 1.960
Open interest to gold -term trading markets decreased by almost 5,000 contracts at the beginning of the week, according to CME Group’s flash data, and reached a third -day decline. In the same direction, the volume was added to the previous daily decrease and approximately 25.3 thousand contracts decreased.
According to market analyst Pablo Piovano, gold prices started the week with a positive mood, but daily gains took place between the decreasing open interest and volume. In the light of the ongoing price movement, the analyst expects the yellow metal to continue to navigate in the current side -striped theme and to be limited to the $ 1,960 area.
