Goldman Sachs, the US economy to recession reduced the probability of entry. This decline indicates that the likelihood that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) may need to raise interest rates further, as inflation slows and the labor market is still resilient, diminishes. bank, in advance 20 percentpredicted recession probability to 15 percentpulled.
Chief Economist of Goldman Sachs Jan Hatzius, in a research note, “ First, we expect economic growth to pick up speed again in 2024, thanks to rising real disposable income, continued robust employment growth and rising real wages. Second, we do not agree with the idea that the long-term effects of monetary policy will push the economy into recession because it will take time for these effects to disappear.” he evaluated.
The Goldman Sachs analyst said the effect of policy tightening to push the economy toward recession is “ before disappearing completely in early 2024“I think it will continue to decline.
