Polymarket’s Predictions on Trump’s Bitcoin Reserve
Current market sentiment suggests that there is only a 16% chance that former President Donald Trump will initiate the creation of a strategic bitcoin (BTC) reserve within the first 100 days of his administration. This forecast comes despite recent assurances from crypto czar David Sacks, who indicated that efforts are underway to explore this possibility. In a recent interview on Fox, Sacks stated, “President Trump has asked us to study that issue, so we are not ready to comment on it yet. But it’s one of the things our working groups are going to look at.”
Separately, Senator Cynthia Lummis, a Republican from Wyoming recognized for her pro-bitcoin policies, has introduced a legislative proposal aimed at establishing a reserve. This bill, distinct from the White House’s initiatives, advocates for the creation of a “Bitcoin Purchase Program”, which would allow for the acquisition of up to 200,000 BTC annually over the next five years. Notably, the program would be partially financed by revaluing the Federal Reserve’s gold assets, as reported by CoinDesk. Currently, the bill is under consideration by the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs.
Among the prominent supporters of this initiative is Michael Saylor, the executive chairman of MicroStrategy (MSTR). He has expressed that implementing such a plan would serve to protect the value of the dollar. Saylor remarked, “The best way to protect the dollar is to ensure you retire the debt and become rich. The next best way to protect the dollar is to make sure that if anyone ever considers a different capital asset other than the treasury bill, you own it.”
In parallel developments, the State of Texas has also announced its intention to establish a strategic BTC reserve. Interestingly, Polymarket bettors currently estimate a 53% chance that a bill authorizing the creation of such a reserve will be approved by 2025.
