Trump’s Weekend Announcement Sparks Bitcoin Reserve Speculation
A recent post on Truth Social by former President Donald Trump has ignited discussions surrounding the potential establishment of a strategic Bitcoin (BTC) reserve in the United States. However, traders on Polymarket are expressing skepticism, with only a 23% probability that such a reserve will materialize within the first 100 days of Trump’s upcoming presidency, which would be by April 30th, 2025.
According to the rules governing the Polymarket contract, for this prediction to resolve positively, the U.S. government must officially hold Bitcoin—acquired through legal means and not confiscated—by 11:59 PM ET on April 29. It’s important to note that mere announcements regarding the creation of a reserve will not suffice to satisfy the conditions of the contract.
Following Trump’s announcement, the likelihood of a Bitcoin reserve increased significantly from 11% to 23%. Additionally, there is another contract available that speculates whether a reserve will be established by the end of 2025, which currently shows a 65% chance of resolving positively.
Initially, Trump’s social media statement mentioned only XRP and SOL as potential components of the reserve, leading to a notable surge in their values. However, he later clarified that Bitcoin and Ethereum (ETH) would also be included in this strategic reserve.
Among the traders on Polymarket, one notable figure is Theo5, who seems to be linked to a French trader operating multiple accounts, including Theo4. This trader has strategically placed bets on Trump’s victory in the November 2024 election, and as of now, Theo5 has reported an impressive profit of $40,000 from his no position on the BTC reserve contract.
In contrast, another trader known as Polywog has faced significant losses, totaling $73,000 on their yes position regarding the BTC reserve, along with an additional loss of over $560,000 from incorrectly betting on the outcome of the 2025 election.
