Gold prices are expected to close September with a loss of approximately 90 dollars, and analysts warn you with a possible erosion if gold drops below $ 1,700. According to analysts, increasing US Treasury returns and a two -stroke combination of a higher US dollar, the inflationary fears in the market and the feeling of avoidance of risk are suppressed down. Kriptokoin.comWe have compiled the gold analysis of 3 important names for you.
Daniel Pavilonis says gold can fall to $ 1,550
During the writing, the December camex gold futures were traded at an increase of 0.12 %for the day, while the US Dollar Index (DXY) increased by 0.64 %during the day at 94.36 %and the US 10 -year Treasury rates were at 1.541 %. RJO Futures Senior Commodity Broker Daniel Pavilonis states the following in a statement:
Interests and dollars are an important part of this. There is an inverse correlation between higher interest rates and metals. When the interest rates explode, metals fall and USD rises.
Daniel Pavilonis says, “It stands hanging there, ve and records that if the precious metal falls below $ 1,673, the market may fall up to $ 1,550.
According to Nicky Shiels, the fair price of gold is in the range of $ 1,450-1.470
Nicky Shiels, Head of MKS Pamp Group Metal Strategy, says that gold is very good, given the leap in DXY, and makes the following assessment:
Gold is currently sitting at $ 1,730 (when Bitcoin reaches a summit of $ 60,000 and all anger was less valuable in the direction of crypos). Always important is at the level of $ 1,675 (the triple bottom, but also close to most of the ETF holders). Furthermore, it is a tension that we believe in the technical place where gold deletes the whole ‘COVID premium’.
MKS Strategy President Nicky Shiels commented on Wednesday, “Gold, $ 50DMA ($ 1,786) before a $ 50 ($ 1,750). Nicky Shiels points out that FED President Jerome Powell’s Taperingin, after signaling that it can end in the middle of next year and ends in the middle of next year, noting that it benefits the US dollar, not below the short -term risk avoidance:
Any close -term uncertainty (debt ceiling, Fed’s tapering, inflation concerns, China, etc.), was directed to the security of the US dollar alone, the dominant driving force behind the permanent pressure in gold and silver.
Nicky Shiels adds that the dollar can lead to a larger sale below a significant upward re -pricing:
If interest rates and the current re-pricing in the dollar continue, if the real returns removes from the negative region and returns to the high levels of the dollar before Covid (which is a major movement), which means that the fair price is in the range of $ 1,450-1.470.
According to Edward Moya, gold moves on thin ice
Oanda Senior Market Analyst Edward Moya says that the 10 -year Treasury return moves towards 1.60 %and that gold is on “thin ice”:
The level of $ 1,700 seems to be close for the ingot, as many trades see the lowest levels of March before $ 1,670 as critical support. Resetting inflation expectations did not benefit from gold prices, in fact it was the main driving force of the Treasury returns. If gold stability may show symptoms, long -term investors will return to the 2022 global economic recovery, which will eventually lead to the weakening of the dollar.
Daniel Pavilonis: The inverse relationship between gold and interest will not last forever
In spite of all this, there are still gold bulls that talk about big money printing, but precious metal does not respond to a higher price target. Daniel Pavilonis makes the following assessment:
Gold is a means of inflationary risk protection. However, the rates are rising, which steals the logic of why gold will rise. There will be a point where rates are not high enough to protect the rates from inflation. And the cat can come out of the bag towards the end of the year or until the middle of next year.
In addition, the good news for esteemed metal investors is the fact that the relationship between gold and higher returns with higher returns will not last forever:
Tapering is not to raise interest rates and the FED rejects the idea of increasing interest rates longer, there is a possibility that there will be an incompatibility with real inflation.
Senior Commodity Broker Daniel Pavilonis states that this year, the Federal Reserve is working hard to create a psychological narrative that inflation is temporary and the market believes that the market believes, but the upcoming energy crisis and longer -lasting supply bottlenecks question this kind of idea.
We see this in natural gas, cotton and we will see it again in the cereals soon. I don’t think it’s temporary. This is the beginning of larger waves upwards.
Spot Gold Price / Source: TradingView