According to Rakesh Upadhyay, certain altcoins, including Bitcoin and DOGE, are trying to change key resistance levels. However, the analyst expects the negative news flow and sales from BTC miners to continue to affect market sentiment. Could the entry in the first reverse Bitcoin ETF act as an opposite signal indicating a possible bottom? Rakesh Upadhyay examines and analyzes the charts of the top 10 cryptocurrencies to find out.
An overview of the crypto market
Cryptokoin’com As you follow, Bitcoin broke above the psychological level of $20,000 on July 6th. This is a sign that the bulls are trying to stop the brutal bear market. Meanwhile, individual traders are making the most of the current drop and are on a buying spree. Evidence of this comes from Glassnode data. It shows that wallets with less than one Bitcoin received 60,460 Bitcoins in June at the ‘most aggressive rate in history’.
In a recent report, Glassnode analysts said that activity on the Bitcoin network shows that “all speculative assets and market tourists have been completely cleared of the asset.” This means that for the most part, the holders of Bitcoin are long-term investors.
Daily cryptocurrency market performance / Source: Coin360However, not everyone is optimistic about Bitcoin’s prospects in the short term. The ProShares Short Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITI), the first exchange-traded fund (ETF) to become a ‘short’ Bitcoin, has increased its short position by “more than 300% in the past week,” according to Arcane Research. Now it’s time for analysis…
BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP and ADA analysis
Bitcoin (BTC)
Bitcoin is trading within a symmetrical triangle pattern. Buyers tried to push the price above the resistance line of the triangle on July 5. But the bears held their ground.
The Doji candlestick pattern on July 5 shows indecision between buyers and sellers. If the price rises above the triangle, this uncertainty is likely to favor the bulls. If this happens, it will suggest that the triangle may have acted as a reversal pattern.
It is possible for BTC to continue higher towards the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) ($25,324) and then the pattern target of $26,490. This hypothesis would be wrong if the price drops from the current level and falls below the support line of the triangle. This is likely to push the price towards the critical support at $17,622. If this support collapses, the next stop could be $15,000.
Ethereum (ETH)
Ethereum attempted a rally above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) ($1,186) on July 5. But the bears had other plans. Price action over the past few days has formed an ascending triangle pattern that will complete with a break and close above $1,280.
If buyers push the price above the 20-day EMA, the probability of a break above $1,280 increases. If this happens, it is possible for ETH to rally to the 50-day SMA ($1,500) and then to the pattern target of $1,679.
Conversely, if the price breaks from the 20-day EMA and dips below the support line, it indicates that the bears are in command. This is likely to push ETH towards the critical support at $881. A break and close below this support is possible, marking the start of the next leg of the downtrend.
Binance Coin (BNB)
The bulls pushed BNB above the 20-day EMA ($232) on July 5. However, the bears posed a strong challenge at higher levels. A positive sign is that the bulls are not giving up much ground and push the price back above the 20-day EMA on July 6.
The 20-day EMA has flattened and the relative strength index (RSI) is hovering near the midpoint. This suggests that bears may lose their grip. If buyers sustain the price above the 20-day EMA, it is possible for BNB to start its rally towards the 50-day SMA ($264). On the other hand, this level is likely to act as a resistance again. However, if the bulls break through this hurdle, it would suggest that BNB has bottomed out at $183.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price breaks from the current level or the 50-day SMA, it will indicate that the bears continue to sell at higher levels. The bears will then try to push the price down to $211.
Ripple (XRP)
XRP is stuck between the 20-day EMA ($0.33) and the support line of the symmetrical triangle pattern. The price recovered from the support line on July 5th. However, the bulls are struggling to break the overall resistance at the 20-day EMA.
The 20-day EMA continues to drop gradually and the RSI is in the negative territory. This shows that the bears are superior. Sellers will try to push the price below the support line. If they do, it is possible for XRP to slide to the critical support at $0.28.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price rises from the current level or support line and rises above the 20-day EMA, XRP is likely to rise towards the resistance line of the triangle. A break and close above this level could indicate the start of a rally to $0.48.
Cardano (ADA)
Cardano is stuck between the 20-day EMA ($0.47) and $0.44. However, this narrow range of trade is unlikely to continue for long. Generally, narrow gaps lead to gap expansions.
The first sign of strength will be a break and close above the 20-day EMA. It is possible that this could open the doors for a break above the key resistance at the 50-day SMA ($0.51). If this happens, ADA is likely to rally to $0.60.
Another possibility is for the price to decline and slide below $0.44. This will show an advantage for the bears. ADA is likely to slide towards critical support at $0.40 later. If this level gives way, ADA is likely to continue the downtrend.
SOL, DOGE, DOT, SHIB and LEO analysis
Left (LEFT)
Solana broke above the 20-day EMA ($36) on July 4. However, the bulls failed to sustain the momentum. The bears pulled the price below the 20-day EMA on July 5.
The long tail on the July 5 candlestick indicates strong buying at the lower levels. This increases the likelihood of a break above the moving averages. If this happens, a rally to $43 is possible for SOL. A break and close above this level is likely to open the way for a possible rally to the psychological resistance at $50.
This positive view will be invalidated in the short term if the price breaks from the current level or the 50-day SMA ($39) and dips below $30. It is possible that this will pull the SOL to $26.
Dogecoin (DOGE)
DOGE has been fluctuating near the 20-day EMA ($0.07) for the past few days. This indicates the uncertainty between buyers and sellers.
The flat 20-day EMA and RSI just below the midpoint give neither the bulls nor the bears a clear advantage. A break and close above the 50-day SMA ($0.07) could be the first indication of buyers’ superiority.
It is possible for the bullish momentum to start with a break above $0.08. DOGE could later rise towards the psychological level of $0.10. Another possibility is for DOGE price to drop from the current level and slide below $0.06. This will give the bears an advantage. Therefore, DOGE could slide to $0.05.
Polkadot (DOT)
The bulls failed to push Polkadot above the immediate resistance at $7.30 on July 4. This indicates that the price is stuck between $7.30 and $6.36.
The failure of the bears to push the price to the support of the range at $6.36 indicates that the bulls are not waiting for a deeper drop to buy. This increases the likelihood of a break above the overhead resistance. If this happens, a rally to the 50-day SMA ($8.48) is possible. On the other hand, bears are likely to defend this level aggressively.
Alternatively, if the price declines and dips below $6.36, it will signal a resumption of the downtrend. DOT is likely to slide towards psychological support at $5 later.
Shiba Inu (SHIB)
The Shiba Inu broke above the 50-day SMA ($0.00010) on July 5. However, the long wick on the candlestick indicates that the bears are selling higher. A minor positive is that the bulls are not allowing the price to drop below $0.000010.
Both moving averages have flattened out and the RSI is holding near the midpoint. This gives neither the bulls nor the bears a clear advantage. If the price rises and rises above $0.000011, a rally to $0.000012 is possible, where the bears could form a strong defense again. The bulls will have to break through this hurdle to open the doors for a possible rally to $0.000014.
Alternatively, if the price declines and dips below $0.000009, it indicates that the bears are back in control. This could increase the chances of a retest of the critical support at $0.00007.
UNUS SED LEO (LEO)
LEO continues to swing near the resistance line of the descending channel as both the bulls and bears seek to gain the upper hand.
The price once again rebounded from the 20-day EMA ($5.66) on July 5. This indicates that the bulls continue to aggressively defend the level. If the bulls push and close LEO above $6, it is possible that the bullish momentum will increase. If this happens, LEO is likely to rally to $6.50 and then to the $6.90 model target.
Conversely, if the price declines and dips below the 20-day EMA, it will indicate that the bears have surpassed the buyers. It is possible that this will push LEO to the 50-day SMA ($5.33).
