Gold, despite the fact that the week began with a loss. Market analyst Eren Şengezer says that a pigeon’s FED surprise can put pressure on US returns and help the gold traction. According to the analyst, the short -term technical appearance reveals the lack of receiver interest.
Gold started the week positive
Kriptokoin.comAs you have followed, Wall Street Journal claimed that the FED plans to make a discussion on whether the FED signals a smaller interest rate hike plans in December. Then the dollar was forced to find demand on Monday. In addition, the data published by S&P Global late on Monday showed that the commercial activity in the private sector continued to shrink at an increasing speed at the beginning of October. The data revealed that the compound PMI fell from 49.5 to 47.3 in September. In contrast, he managed to protect the golden floor.
The US Federal Housing Finance Agency announced on Tuesday that housing prices fell to a stronger rate than expected in August. This did not allow the dollar to accelerate again. It also helped maintain the balance of gold. In addition, the Consumer Confidence Index of the Conference Board fell from 107.8 to 102.5 in September in September and missed the market expectation of 105.9. Dollar sales accelerated in the midst of the US Treasury bill returns on Wednesday. Yellow metal rose and increased to $ 1,675, the highest level of the two weeks. Meanwhile, Canadian Bank’s Pigeon’s 50 BPS interest rate hike has caused global returns to fall.
The data coming in the second half of the week pushed the gold down
On Thursday, ECB increased key interest rates as expected by 75 BPS. At the press conference, ECB President Christine Lagarde refused to make an extra interest rate hike in December. In addition, a possible quantitative tightening (QT) movement did not share any details. This caused the Euro to be under heavy sales pressure. The dollar caught some of the exit from the euro. This made it difficult for gold to maintain the rise momentum.
In addition, the first estimate of the US Economic Analysis Bureau (Bea) revealed that the US economy grew by 2.6 %annually compared to its 2.4 %market consensus in the third quarter. The indicator of the 10 -year US Treasury bond return, optimistic gross domestic product (GDP) data exceeded 4 %. Thus, the gold came under the pressure of the fall again and closed the week under $ 1,650 in red.
In a statement on Friday, Bea announced that inflation in the US, which was measured by the price index of Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), remained unchanged on an annual basis in September. The Core PCE Price Index, which is the inflation indicator preferred by the FED, rose from 4.9 %to 5.1 %in August. Thus, it came higher than 5.2 %estimation of analysts. Despite relatively soft inflation data, US T-Tahvil returns rose. This was forced to remain under the pressure of the valuable metal.
The event of the week: Fed Policy Interest Decision
ISM will publish the October Manufacturing PM report on Tuesday. S&P Global’s market response to PMI polls shows that a disappointing data is likely to put pressure on the dollar. However, before the analyst, before the Fed’s policy announcements on Wednesday, the impact of this report on the dollar will probably be short -lived.
The markets expect the FED to increase the interest rate by increasing the interest rate by 75 BPS to 3.75-4 %after the FED policy meeting. The FOMC policy makers have repeatedly said that they would based their policy decisions on data and they would not provide any future guidance. However, investors will look for tips for a smaller increase in December.
Currently, according to CME Group’s Fedwatch Tool, the markets are pricing 51.5 %of the Fed’s policy rate increasing a total of 125 basis points by the end of 2022. Market positions show that the dollar has a more share if investors are convinced that the FED will decide to increase an increase of 50 BPS in December. According to the analyst, in this scenario, it is likely to gain acceleration of rise as well as falling US returns. In addition, the analyst says that the markets can trigger a risk rally with the beginning of the pricing at the summit of the FED’s hawk. In this respect, he records that it is possible to give additional weight to the dollar. Alternatively, the analyst makes the following assessment:
On the other hand, if the FED does not show any policy changes and takes refuge in the dollar, the risk traders are likely to be disappointed. This will probably be a significant decline tendency for gold. Thus, it will open the door of a long -term decline.
US NFP data will come on Friday
On Thursday, ISM services will be included in the US economic list. However, it is possible for market participants not to pay attention to the Fed’s policy decisions. Finally, the US Office of Statistics will publish the October employment report on Friday. Investors estimate that non -Agricultural Employment (NFP) will increase by 200,000 in September after a better increase of 263,000 in September. The market’s reaction to the last few NFP data is open with powerful data that helps the dollar perform better than its competitors. The opposite also applies. According to the analyst, a similar reaction is likely to be prior to the weekend.
Gold Technical View and Gold Emotion Survey
Market analyst Eren Şengezer analyzes the technical appearance of gold as follows. Gold tested this level twice at the beginning of the week. However, the 20 -day SMA could not make a daily closing. In addition, the relative power index (RSI) indicator of the daily graph has returned to the south. Later, around 50 resistance and decreased to 40. This shows that the sellers want to control the movement of the gold.
In the lower direction, $ 1,620 (the end of the six -month decline trend) stands as a critical support. A decrease below this level is possible to trigger a technical decline. This will cause gold to fall to $ 1,600 and $ 1,575. If the yellow metal closes on daily $ 1,670 daily (20-day SMA) and manages to gain stability, it can target $ 1,680 (50-day SMA), $ 1,700 (psychological level) and $ 1,720 (100-period SMA, 23.6 %withdrawal).
In the FXSTREET Gold Forecast Survey, an average week of target is sitting at $ 1,660. Thus, it points to the appearance of rise in the near term. The one -month appearance shows that half of the survey experts adopted the view of the rise against a 40 %decrease. Therefore, it draws a mixed table.
