Leading financial institutions such as Goldman Sachs underestimate the possibility of the United States entering a recession in 2024. However, Tavi Costa, Partner and Macro Strategist at Crescat Capital, takes a much different approach. The strategist also says wealth advisors, hedge funds and investors are about to flock to gold. In this regard, Costa announces the gold price forecast for the 3-6 month period.
Hard landing scenario for the US economy
Tavi Costa talks about the hard landing scenario for the US economy. Costa says there are plenty of macro indicators that point to this. Costa disagreed with Goldman Sachs’ relatively optimistic outlook, which sees the possibility of a 15% contraction in the U.S. economy next year, possibly due to an exogenous shock, according to Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius. Costa refers to movements in the yield curve and worrying trends in the unemployment rate. Based on this, he says that the US economy is now on the verge of a significant downturn. In this context, Costa makes the following statement:
In the US, we have one of the most deeply inverted yield curves we have ever seen in history. And now, with the steepening that comes from these reversals, this is one of the classic signs that you tend to see in credit markets, which recessions tend to follow.
Central banks are aggressively buying gold!
cryptokoin.com As you follow from , gold prices cannot stay above $2,000. However, Costa predicts that gold will rise to new heights in the not too distant future. Considering the macro trends mentioned above, Costa says that gold is at a turning point. “It’s hard to believe that gold won’t explode,” Costa said. This is not a turning point. “We are also very close to seeing something very special for shiny metal,” he says.
Tavi Costa notes that central banks are aggressively purchasing gold. He also states that hedge funds will also follow this. “71% of financial allocators or advisors who participated in a recent survey said they held less than 1% gold,” Costa said. “I don’t remember a time in history when advisors and general investors have neglected owning gold for so long,” he says.
Strategist: Gold price will be $2,500 in 3-6 months!
Tavi Costa speculates on the future price movements of gold if advisors increase their current gold allocations. David Einhorn’s fund, Greenlight Capital, invested $34.9 million in SPDR Gold Shares, the world’s largest gold-backed ETF. The firm’s third-quarter 13-F filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission showed as much. According to reports, this is Greenlight Capital’s largest stake in GLD. The current allocation to GLD represents 4.2% of Greenlight Capital’s portfolio. Additionally, this rate is slightly below the 2% reported in the second quarter. Costa thinks other hedge funds will follow this trend. Based on this, he shares the following prediction for gold:
Investors will return to gold next year as the economy shows signs of more trouble and hard landings. This is what will push gold prices much higher. Gold could rise to $2,500 in three to six months. The list of macro reasons to own the yellow metal is larger now than at any time in history.
