First Mover Americas: Bitcoin’s Bear Cross (Is Bullish) and a Big June Jobs Beat

Good morning, and welcome to First Mover. I’m Lyllah Ledesma, here to take you through the latest in crypto markets, news and insights.

• Price Point: BTC is trading up 5% on the day as short liquidations get washed out, triggering buy orders. Traditional markets react to the news of Japan’s Prime Minister’s death.
• Market Moves: Omkar Godble looks atthe bearish but historically contrary ‘Bear Cross’ indicator which suggests an end to the market decline and a bullish revival ahead.
• JUST IN: U.S. jobs report shows gain of 372,000 in non-farm payrolls, exceeding economists’ estimates for a 275,000 increase. The report might suggest that the Federal Reserve will have little choice but to raise the benchmark U.S. interest rate by 0.75 percentage point at a meeting later this week to keep the economy from getting too hot. Bitcoin was trading about 1% lower in the minutes after the report. (Check CoinDesk for updates.)

Price point

Bitcoin (BTC) traded above the $21,500 threshold for the first time in a week. The world’s largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization was up 4.5% on the day after dipping to lows of $19,300 earlier on in the week.

U.S. stock futures slid and European equities were lower as the news broke that Japan’s former longest serving prime minister known for his “Abenomics” policy, was shot while making a campaign speech in Nara.

Ether (ETH) was up 2.5% at around $1,211. ETH started the week off at lows of $1,000 and has since climbed.

The correlation between cryptocurrencies and risk-on assets continues to strengthen as the global macro environment appears to be the driver behind price action.

Looking forward for the cryptomarket, Fabio Ackeret, sales trader at Crypto Finance AG, said he sees no breakout ahead anytime soon.

“To see crypto breaking out on the upside, the dust of all recent events needs to settle (UST, Celsius, 3AC),” said Ackeret in a note on Friday.

Also an interesting outcome of bitcoin’s recent price recovery, was that crypto miners’ share prices were up 9.6% between Wednesday and Thursday, according to data from CoinDesk.

In other news, crypto lender Celsuis deposited $500 million in wrapped bitcoin (WBTC), a bitcoin derivative product of the Ethereum blockchain, to crypto exchange FTX just hours after Celsius repaid its debt to the decentralized lending protocol Maker and reclaimed $450 million of collateral in WBTC.

In Spain, ‘Moon Tech Spain,’ Binance’s Spanish subsidiary, has been granted registration as a virtual asset services provider (VASP) by the country’s central bank.

Over in Latin America, Bitso, announced on Thursday it has launched a cryptocurrency remittance service in Colombia. The service – which will allow individuals and businesses to send and receive digital dollars – is the first crypto remittance product in Colombia to date, according to Bitso.

Remittances totaling $8.56 billion were sent to Colombia from abroad in 2021, an all-time record, El Tiempo newspaper reported.

Compass Mining has let go of 15% of its employees, and has cut executive compensation to ride out the crypto downturn. The bitcoin mining company said it’s reassessing its priorities after growing too quickly.

Market moves

By Omkar Godble

Bitcoin ‘Bear Cross’ Raises Outlook for Bull Revival

Yes, you read the title right. An impending bearish crossover, a technical pattern theoretically suggesting continued weakness in the bitcoin (BTC) price, could be a trap for sellers and portend a bullish revival.

A three-day-candlestick chart shows the simple moving average (SMA) of the past 100 candlesticks is on the verge of crossing below the 200-candle SMA, confirming the first bearish crossover of the two averages since December 2018.

Historically, the crossover has marked an end of bear markets and paved the way for notable bull runs.

The averages crossed bearishly in December 2018, trapping sellers on the wrong side of the market. Bitcoin bottomed near $3,200 and spent the following three months building a base for a rally. The cryptocurrency hit a high of $13,800 by the end of June 2019.

The bear cross of February 2015 coincided with peak selling, and bitcoin began a multiyear bull run seven months later. The first bear cross, dated June 2012, also trapped sellers on the wrong side of the market.

Crossovers between longer duration moving averages are known to be contrary indicators because they are based on past data and tend to lag prices. The market is often battered, oversold and overdue for a reversal higher by the time the crossover is confirmed.

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. That said, history could repeat itself because the Fed’s hawkishness, or anti-stimulus stance, appears to have peaked and traders are now pricing interest rate cuts for 2023.

Read the full story here: Bitcoin ‘Bear Cross’ Raises Outlook for Bull Revival

Latest headlines

• XRP Leads Recovery Among Major Cryptocurrencies; Fed Policymakers Back 75 Basis Point Hike: Major cryptocurrencies recovered over the past 24 hours and broader equity markets strengthened even as two U.S. Federal Reserve policymakers called for higher rate increases in the coming months.
• Binance Secures Registration in Spain Through Its Moon Tech Subsidiary: Binance can now offer crypto exchange and custody services in the country.
• Crypto Mining Stocks Bounce Amid Bitcoin Recovery: Investors are likely feeling comfortable as bitcoin has stabilized over the past few days.
• GameStop CFO Departs Amid Cut-Costing Drive, Web3 Pivot: In a letter to employees, CEO Matt Furlong said the firm’s focus has turned to “eliminating excess costs and operating with an intense owner’s mentality.”
• Japan’s Former Prime Minister Abe Shot Dead; Equity Futures Fall: Abe was the country’s longest-serving prime minister.
• Why Ethereum Name Service Is Seeing a Spike in Domain Registrations: The registrations came on the back of a record-breaking ENS sale, a research firm pointed out.
• Swiss Cybersecurity Firm WISeKey Ends Share Buyback Program: The Zug-based firm repurchased 1,074,305 shares for about $1.5 million.
• Bitcoin Core Developer Pieter Wuille Scales Back His Maintenance Role: Peter Wuille has surrendered his maintenance permissions but will continue contributing to various Bitcoin projects.
• Celsius Accused of Fraud in Lawsuit by Ex-Employee: The roughed-up crypto lender froze withdrawals last month and later said it was exploring restructuring options.
• Marathon Digital Continues to Hodl All Bitcoin, but Hints at Strategy Change: Dealing with a number of operational challenges, the company mined 707 bitcoin during the second quarter down sharply from the previous three months.

Today’s newsletter was edited by Bradley Keoun and produced by Stephen Alpher.