Crypto markets are preparing for one of the most turbulent weeks of 2024. Especially the developments in the USA attract attention. Three major economic events such as the US elections, unemployment claims and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting can affect investors. Apart from this, critical data will also come from countries such as England, China and South Korea. The most striking development in this busy calendar is the presidential race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.
Cryptocurrency market is in turmoil with the elections in the USA
In the US presidential elections to be held on Tuesday, November 5, Republican Party candidate Donald Trump and Democratic Party candidate Kamala Harris are in a tight race. According to Polymarket’s data, Trump seems to have a small lead over Harris. However, other prediction platforms like Kalshi also show Trump ahead with 52%. This small difference signals that markets will react differently depending on the election results.
Election results could have a direct impact on US economic and cryptocurrency policies. The approach of the winning party to regulations may cause fluctuations in cryptocurrency markets, especially Bitcoin (BTC). AlphaBTC analyst Mark Cullen said, “Tuesday will be a very active day. “If there is no clear result, we may enter a tense period for Bitcoin,” he says, drawing attention to the impact of uncertainty on prices.
FOMC and other data are also on the agenda
Immediately after the elections in the USA, all eyes will turn to unemployment application data to be announced on Thursday, November 7. Economists expect applications to rise to 220,000. While this data offers clues about the current state of the U.S. labor market, high unemployment claims may indicate increasing economic woes. If unemployment applications increase, investors may move away from traditional assets such as stocks and turn to alternative investments such as cryptocurrencies.
The FOMC regulates interest rates in order to keep inflation under control and ensure full employment in the US economy. At the FOMC meeting on the evening of November 7, expectations are for a 0.25% interest rate cut. This rate becomes more possible as the consumer price index (CPI) approaches the 2% target. Additionally, the increase in the unemployment rate from 3.7% to 4.1% since the beginning of the year signals a slowdown in the labor market, which increases the possibility of an interest rate cut.
According to CME’s Fed Watch Tool data, markets predict the probability of a rate cut as 99.9%. This decision of the FOMC in November and the statements of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell may support the expected fluctuation, especially in the cryptocurrency markets. A possible interest rate cut to support economic growth could lead to a potential increase in the value of Bitcoin by encouraging investors to turn to cryptocurrencies.
What are the expectations in cryptocurrencies?
Bitcoin is trading at $68,000 ahead of important events such as the US elections and the FOMC meeting. According to Spotonchain analysis, Bitcoin has a high potential to reach $100,000 by the end of 2024 after this week. Historical data shows that a bull market usually occurs after US elections. Spotonchain said, “We think that BTC will continue its rise, no matter who wins the election,” pointing out that the volatility that may occur this week could be the beginning of a long-term rally. It is predicted that Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies may enter a broader upward trend, especially if the FOMC is supported by a possible interest rate cut.
There are also developments in other countries
There will be important events that may affect the Bitcoin and altcoin markets, not only the developments in the USA, but also internationally. The cryptocurrency committee, which will meet for the first time in South Korea on November 7, will draw a road map on cryptocurrency regulations and crypto asset strategies in the country. On the same day, the UK Central Bank’s interest rate decision is expected. On November 8, the 1.4 trillion dollar monetary package will be on the agenda in China.
