Analysis of open interest in Chicago Mercantile Exchange’s (CME) bitcoin (BTC) futures shows that the unwinding of long positions appears to be in its end phase rather than its beginning, JPMorgan (JPM) said in a research report on Thursday.
Open interest refers to the total number of outstanding derivative contracts, such as options or futures, that have not been settled.
“As a result we see limited downside for crypto markets over the near term,” analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou wrote.
The correction in crypto markets in August, “which reversed the post Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) versus Ripple court decision rally” can be partly credited to the “broader correction in risk assets such as equities and in particular tech, which in turn appears to have been induced by frothy positioning in tech, higher U.S. real yields and growth concerns about China,” the report said.
JPMorgan said that the news of Elon Musk’s SpaceX writing off its bitcoin holding in the previous quarter acted as an “additional catalyst for the correction in crypto markets.”
“These news caught up investors with an overhang of long positions,” the note said.
The SEC is appealing against the district court’s ruling in the Ripple case and with the outcome of the appeal not expected until next year, this could induce a “new round of legal uncertainty for crypto markets,” the report added.
