Bitcoin Bulls Await March Nonfarm Payrolls Report
As the crucial U.S. nonfarm payrolls (NFP) report for March approaches, bitcoin (BTC) bulls find themselves in a scenario reminiscent of the character Two-Face (Harvey Dent) from the iconic film The Dark Knight. This character famously flips coins to make decisions, exuding confidence in controlling outcomes regardless of the coin’s result. In a similar vein, the current market conditions for bitcoin suggest a classic case of “heads I win, tails you lose.” This implies that bitcoin bulls are likely to emerge victorious after the upcoming jobs report, irrespective of whether the data indicates strength or weakness in the labor market.
The backdrop for this situation stems from President Donald Trump’s announcement on Wednesday regarding sweeping tariffs impacting 180 nations. This development has led forward-looking markets to begin pricing in potential recession risks along with expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. Consequently, even if the jobs data comes in stronger than anticipated—typically a scenario that would bolster the dollar and exert downward pressure on risk assets like BTC—such results may be brushed aside as outdated. This dismissal would overlook the recent economic shifts resulting from Trump’s policies. Therefore, any dip in BTC prices following a potentially robust NFP report could be quickly reversed, leading to a resurgence in value.
Conversely, if the data comes in weak, it would only amplify fears of a recession and reinforce bets on Fed rate cuts, potentially igniting renewed risk-taking in financial markets. As of the latest updates, bitcoin is trading at $84,190, having experienced lows dipping below $82,000 on Thursday, according to CoinDesk data. The resilience shown by prices, remaining well above the March low of $77,000 despite the heightening tariff uncertainty, suggests seller fatigue and hints at the potential for a price increase.
The Volmex bitcoin one-day implied volatility index currently stands at an annualized 65%, indicating an anticipated price swing of 3.4% in the next 24 hours. The jobs data is scheduled for release at 12:30 UTC. According to FactSet, the median estimate for total nonfarm payroll employment in March is projected at 130,000, a decrease from February’s tally of 151,000. Additionally, the unemployment rate is expected to have risen to 4.2%, up from 4.1%.
In anticipation of the data release, rates traders are currently pricing in 100 basis points of Fed rate cuts for this year, with the first move anticipated in June, as indicated by the CME’s FedWatch tool.
