Trade War Developments: A Potential Resolution on the Horizon
Recent indicators suggest that there is a 70% likelihood that the ongoing trade conflict between Canada and the United States could reach a resolution by May. This prediction stems from odds placed on a Polymarket contract focused on the issue. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick recently shared insights with Fox Business, indicating that U.S. President Donald Trump is open to engaging in negotiations.
As of Tuesday morning, both Canada and Mexico were facing the imminent implementation of a hefty 25% tariff on all products entering the United States. President Trump attributed this drastic measure to their perceived failure to effectively combat fentanyl trafficking and illegal immigration, which he views as significant threats to national security. However, later that day, Lutnick hinted at a potential pathway for negotiations, as the odds on Polymarket surged by 20% within a few hours following his remarks.
“I believe [Trump is] going to work something out with them,” Lutnick stated. “It won’t be just a simple pause; we’re moving beyond that. Instead, I think he’ll find a way to say: you will need to do more, and I’ll find a way to meet you in the middle, and we’ll likely announce that tomorrow.”
Lutnick’s comments seemed to provide a sense of stability in the market, particularly for cryptocurrencies, on what has been dubbed ‘Turnaround Tuesday’. Bitcoin (BTC) saw a 1.5% increase, trading comfortably above the $87,000 mark, according to data from CoinDesk Indices. Additionally, the CoinDesk 20 (CD20), which tracks the performance of the largest digital assets globally, experienced a 2% rise in response to the news.
