Potential Resolution in the Canada-U.S. Trade War
A recent analysis suggests that there is a 70% likelihood that the ongoing trade war between Canada and the United States could come to an end by May. This insight is drawn from a Polymarket contract that gauges the odds on this specific issue. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick conveyed to Fox Business that U.S. President Donald Trump appears open to negotiations regarding the matter.
As of Tuesday morning, both Canada and Mexico were confronted with the implementation of hefty 25% tariffs on all goods entering the U.S. This drastic measure was justified by President Trump, who cited both countries’ failure to effectively address fentanyl trafficking and illegal immigration as significant national security threats.
However, later in the day, Secretary Lutnick hinted at a possible path toward negotiation. He noted a notable increase of 20% in the odds on Polymarket within just a few hours. “I believe [Trump] will work something out with them,” Lutnick stated during his appearance on Fox Business. “It won’t be a mere pause or anything like that; rather, I think he’ll find a way to say: ‘You do more, and I’ll meet you halfway in some manner. We’re likely to announce that tomorrow.’
Lutnick’s remarks appeared to have a calming effect on the cryptocurrency markets during what traders referred to as ‘Turnaround Tuesday.’ Notably, Bitcoin (BTC) saw an increase of 1.5%, trading comfortably above $87,000, according to data from CoinDesk Indices. The CoinDesk 20 (CD20), which serves as a benchmark for the performance of the world’s largest digital assets, also rose by 2% following this news.
