CryptoQuant contributing analyst argues that Bitcoin (BTC) is currently a silly investment for willing buyers. Additionally, research claims that Bitcoin is facing a ‘loop bottom’ this year, where it could drop more than 50% from current levels.
2022 is Bitcoin (BTC) the year of ‘surrender’?
In a June 1 Twitter thread, analyst alias Venturefounder, contributor to on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, predicts 2022 as Bitcoin’s ‘surrender’ year. Based on historical patterns involving Bitcoin’s halvings, the analyst says this year should be the bear market black sheep of the current four-year cycle, making the following assessment:
Just like 2018 and the bear market like, BTC should find a macro base for itself at some point in 2022, and if we calculate the previous dips from all-time highs, that could be anywhere between $14,000 and $21,000.
Bitcoin’s route according to Venturefounder
In a tweet, “670 days until the next Bitcoin halving, We are on time to BTC performance compared to past cycles,” says Venturefounder
In the next 670 days, BTC will capitulate and hit the bottom of the cycle in the next 6 months ($14-21,000), then 28 for most of 2023 It will fluctuate around $40,000 and will be around $40,000 again until the next halving.
Such a prognosis (guessing the outcome of the question) is not without precedent, if not music to the bulls’ ears. Cryptokoin.com , as you can remember from the news, after reaching $3,100 in December 2018, Bitcoin managed to recover to $13,800 seven months later and returned downhill to $3,600, the lowest level of March 2020. Even the 2019 local peak wasn’t enough to break the time record ($20,000) set in December 2017.
Bitcoin currently has the “best 3-year ROI ever”
Venturefounder says that above this level (40k) for Bitcoin dollar) again believes it could become a feature of the spot price chart. Those who want to ride the wave and invest (even now) will be on the right side of history, according to the analyst. He explains it this way:
In other words, buying Bitcoin for 6-12 months from this point forward is as good as it gets. Probably the best 3-year ROI ever. We may not be at the bottom of the cycle, but we are in the bottom range of the BTC cycle. This is the best thing you can do when timing market cycles.
Bottoms for BTC keep coming
Meanwhile, other analysts put the possible low range for BTC at or near $14,000. they are guessing. This predicted price would represent an approximately 80% drop from the current all-time high of $69,000, which corresponds to the percent low of the previous cycle.
Current levels around $31,000 look relatively modest as a drop, according to data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode.
BTC drops from all-time highs / Source: Glassnode Last month, fellow analyst Rekt Capital calculated a potential target of $15,500 when BTC fell below its 200-week moving average.
Sellers may face difficulties driving the market this far. MicroStrategy, which owns the largest BTC institutional treasury, has pledged to buy any step towards the $20,000 mark. Arthur Hayes, former CEO of trading giant BitMEX, also confirmed that he will be interested in BTC at $20,000.
