With the US presidential elections approaching, volatility in the cryptocurrency market is expected to increase. While it is estimated that investors may have difficulty finding direction in this uncertain environment, the research company 10x Research offered a strategic transaction proposal on Bitcoin (BTC) and Solana (SOL). The founder of the company, Markus Thielen, suggested that investors “take a long position in Bitcoin and open a short position in Solana” before the election. According to Thielen, this approach can help investors protect themselves against fluctuations that may occur during the election process.
Bitcoin and Solana are in the focus of traders
Thielen pointed out that the outcome of the elections could have serious repercussions on the crypto asset market, and this could have a significant impact, especially for exchange traded funds (ETFs) linked to alternative cryptocurrencies. In this context, Thielen suggested that if Democratic candidate Kamala Harris wins the elections, ETF approvals based on alternative cryptocurrencies may decrease, and stated that in this scenario, the price of Solana may decrease by approximately 15%. In the same scenario, Bitcoin is expected to decline in a more limited way, by approximately 9%.
However, if former President Donald Trump, who is known to be crypto-friendly, wins the election, there may be a more positive atmosphere in the market. Thielen stated that Trump’s win could lead to a 5% increase in leading cryptocurrencies such as Solana, Bitcoin and Ethereum. The fact that spot ETFs, especially for Bitcoin and Ethereum, are already traded in the US and have received investments worth billions of dollars, could increase the demand for these assets if Trump wins the election. In this case, the prospect of a positive regulatory environment may increase investor interest.
Solana’s ETF approval expectation
Solana has not yet received approval for a spot ETF, but investment companies such as VanEck, 21Shares, and Canary Capital have filed applications for a Solana ETF with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Thielen states that investors’ interest in this crypto asset has begun to decrease due to the uncertainty of Solana’s ETF approval. This situation is considered as a possible risk factor that may affect Solana’s price.
In addition, the decrease in daily transaction fees on the Solana network stands out as another factor that may put pressure on the price. Daily transaction fees on the Solana network dropped to $2.5 million after peaking at $5 million on October 24, according to Artemis and TokenTerminal data. According to Thielen, such decreases in transaction fees have caused pressure on Solana’s price in the past.
The head-to-head race continues
Hours before the USA goes to the polls to determine its new president, the latest polls show that the fight between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is neck-and-neck. The gap between the two candidates is quite narrow in many states, making it difficult to predict the outcome of the election. The fact that Harris and Trump’s rivalry continues so tightly increases the expectation of high volatility in the market. Considering that cryptocurrencies may change direction depending on the election result, investors are trying to take positions by taking these risks into consideration.
The BTC-SOL swap proposed by 10x Research aims to provide investors with a safe trading option under current market conditions. This strategy aims to reduce the risk of being affected by market fluctuations by taking positions in different directions on both Bitcoin and Solana. On the other hand, in addition to Thielen’s predictions based on the election result, fundamental factors such as ETF approvals and transaction fees are also expected to have an impact on prices.
