Solana’s SOL Token Faces Potential Price Movement Amid Whale Activity
As the cryptocurrency market gears up for the U.S. non-farm payroll (NFP) report scheduled for release later today, Solana’s SOL token is set for a possible price fluctuation of nearly 6%. This estimate arises from the recent actions of large investors, commonly referred to as whales, who have offloaded substantial portions of their holdings. The one-day implied volatility index (IV) for SOL, as reported by Volmex, currently stands at an annualized rate of 109.70%, suggesting an anticipated 24-hour price volatility of approximately 5.74%. (This daily figure is calculated by dividing the annualized volatility by the square root of 365, which accounts for the total number of trading days within a year.)
This level of price movement indicates moderate volatility for Solana, particularly in light of the fact that the cryptocurrency has seen numerous instances of 6% or greater volatility since early March, according to data from CoinDesk. In essence, while the market is expected to exhibit some volatility, it is not anticipated to venture into unprecedented territory.
Whale Selling Activity
Recent data from blockchain analysis firm Lookonchain reveals that several notable whales have unstaked and liquidated SOL tokens worth a staggering $46.3 million into the market. Typically, significant sell-offs by these large holders tend to result in bearish pressure on prices. However, the total amount sold this morning represents only 0.97% of Solana’s 24-hour trading volume, which is reported at $4.7 billion. Consequently, it comes as no surprise that SOL is currently trading relatively unchanged, hovering around $116, after reaching a low of $112 on Thursday. Overall, Solana has maintained a downtrend since peaking at $295 on January 19.
Anticipation of Payroll Data
Later today, at 12:30 GMT, the U.S. jobs report is expected to be released, providing insight into the economy’s health. Analysts predict that approximately 130,000 jobs were added in March, marking a slowdown from February’s addition of 151,000 jobs and significantly below the 12-month average of 162,300, as per FactSet. Additionally, the median estimate for the unemployment rate in March is forecasted to be 4.2%, the highest level since November, up from February’s 4.1%. Moreover, average hourly earnings are projected to have increased by 0.3% month-over-month, aligning with the pace recorded in February.
A weaker-than-expected jobs report could potentially reinforce the market’s expectations for four 25-basis-point interest rate cuts this year. Such a development might lead to a surge in risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, as investors react to more favorable monetary conditions.
