Crypto analyst Akash Girimath says that the Bitcoin price is showing a scatter on a lower timeframe, which supports the idea of a correction. According to the analyst, investors should look for the $21,155 level as a short-term target for the bears. We have prepared Akash Girimath’s BTC analysis for our readers.
“If Bitcoin sees sales, it could ruin the party”
cryptocoin.com For the second time, Bitcoin is seeing massive rejection at a critical hurdle. This is a sign of the possibility of a comeback. A more detailed look at the lower timeframe reveals that this bearish outlook may be possible under certain circumstances.
However, crypto markets seem to be enjoying the bullish narrative painted on due to Ethereum’s upcoming Merge upgrade. As a result, many altcoins have more than doubled in the past month. It’s also showing signs that more are on the way. On the other hand, if the Bitcoin price sees a sell-off, it’s possible that it could potentially ruin the party for many such altcoins, including Ethereum.
Bitcoin price remains stable, but for how long?
Bitcoin is stuck to consolidate inside the rising parallel channel fractal with no signs of a breakout. Things have remained more or less the same since the last weekly forecast. However, with an important addition, BTC tried to break the 50% retracement level at $24,948. Unfortunately it failed.
The leading crypto seems to be receiving overwhelming buying pressure due to the 200-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 30-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) support cluster of $22,900. Also, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is showing a major support area between 47 and 51. This explains why the BTC price experienced a spike in buying pressure on August 4.
This is the second unsuccessful attempt to turn the $25,000 hurdle into a support floor. Adding another confidence to the increase in bear dominance is the daily candle close on August 12, which shows that buyers are overwhelmed by sellers. To make matters worse, Bitcoin price produced a higher high on July 28 and August 11, while the RSI produced a lower low, suggesting that the downtrend is developing. All in all, the bigger picture for BTC shows us two potential scenarios that could evolve.
- The first scenario is a rally towards $29,000. This narrative is developing well with the recent bullish outlook due to Ethereum’s Merge. However, to be efficient, Bitcoin price needs to turn the $25,000 level, which is a major thorn in the bulls’ side, into a support base.
- The second scenario includes a breakdown of the support cluster of the 200-week SMA and the 30-day EMA at around $22,900. In such a case, BTC is likely to retest the highest trading volume level at $21,155. This barrier is called a checkpoint. It is also derived from price data to date from the last breakout of the ascending channel on June 10.
BTC 1-day chartLet’s take a closer look at Bitcoin price from a lower time frame. Let’s discuss whether we can get a clue for one of the narratives mentioned above.
BTC distribution hints at things to come
Bitcoin is showing an interesting development on the hourly chart, which shows a potential distribution phase. The Wyckoff distribution stage consists of specific identifiers to indicate whether the underlying asset is in the accumulation or distribution stage.
BTC 1-hour chartAfter a major rally, the asset, namely BTC, is forming a primary supply level (PSY), which in the chart above appears to occur on July 28. It then follows a minor uptrend that marks the top of the buying pressure (BC). As the bullish momentum stalls, Bitcoin price drops further in the chart above, called the automatic reaction (AR), which ended around August 2.
This decline is followed by a bullish (UT) and AR scan leading to the first sign of weakness (SOW). However, the final leg of the spread where traders can go long will be a scan of the UT, which produces bullish (UTAD) after the spread. After this move, the asset slowly begins to decline. Then sales increase as it cannot hold on to AR.
Important levels to watch for BTC
Bitcoin price is currently at a favorable time for sellers. After producing UTAD at $24,722, it is likely to decline. Interestingly, the 50% retracement level of $24,989 mentioned in the section above is a major hurdle. Therefore, a refusal here makes a lot of sense and adds credibility to the distribution thesis.
- If bitcoin price provides a retest of $24.211, market participants are likely to go short.
- Take profit levels include the 30-day EMA at $22.947. That’s roughly $300 above the AR at $22,598.
- Other take-profit levels to consider include the four-hour fair value spread of $21,440. In other words, there is price inefficiency and a pool of liquidity below $20,750.
- Invalidation occurs if Bitcoin turns the $24,989 hurdle into a support base on a daily timeframe.
More bearish outlooks will develop if bitcoin price closes the weekly candlestick below the checkpoint at $21,155. In this case, a fault will occur in the ascending parallel channel. This will signal a much harder sell for BTC. However, investors should not get ahead of themselves. It makes sense to look for a range lower at $17,585 to stabilize and reassess the sale.
