Lack of liquidity in the markets, the effects of US inflation and interest rates, fundamental conditions not being optimistic… These are very important issues that we all follow.
So, when we look at on-chain data from a broader perspective, what is different compared to previous periods?
While capital/liquidity inflows entered crypto assets in the first half of 2023, they stabilized in the second half of the year and reached the level of instability. At the same time, there is no significant change in the purchase prices of coins transferred on the onchain, meaning investors generally do not sell for profits or losses.
Long-term investors currently own approximately 75 percent of the circulating BTC supply. An average of over +50K BTC per month is currently being vaulted by Hodlers, indicating both a tightening of supply and a widespread reluctance to trade. Bitcoin supply is getting tighter this cycle compared to previous ones.
When we look at the Bitcoin hot supply, we see a shrinking and compressed BTC supply that has been below 0.5 standard deviations for the last 535 days.
When we look at the situation on hodlers and exchanges simultaneously, the amount of Bitcoin on exchanges is at the lowest level in the last five years, while LTHs (those hodling for more than six months) are at ATH level.
The fact that these two go in the opposite direction also indicates accumulation. This can be considered as an indication that BTCs have been withdrawn from exchanges and moved to wallets and become long-term investors.
Despite all the negative fundamental conditions, according to on-chain data, Bitcoin is seen as being in the accumulation phase and preparing for the bullish season.
According to Onchain technical data, while there may be a significant increase with a closing above 28.235, if we cannot exceed the cost for short-term investors (27.768), it is possible to visit the following important supports.
References: https://insights.glassnode.com/ https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/
